Despite their restrictions, the fresh new Essential Statistics supplies the most useful available analysis in which to guess this new national split up speed from inside the 1990. S. Census Agency staff indicates that relationship incidents analysis throughout the ACS and you may U.S. Vital Analytics (like the DRA try) is actually similar ( Elliott mais aussi al., 2010). Quotes for much more the last few years are not you’ll be able to once the government authorities abandoned the latest distinctive line of vital statistics towards the marriages and divorces at county height for the 1996.

So that all of our answers are powerful, we performed a supplemental data from the restricting the latest 2010 ACS study to only this new DRA sample says where ages during the time of divorce or separation are advertised in 1990. The outcome from this extra study are almost same as people according to the whole nation, recommending that rise in the fresh divorce proceedings rates is not an artifact off along with ACS research from every says.

Analytical Strategy

Our approach is primarily descriptive as we aim to provide trend data on divorce and to identify the factors associated with divorce among today’s middle-aged and older adults. All results are presented for the total sample and separately for middle-aged (aged 50–64) and older (aged 65 and older) adults to assess whether there is cohort variation. To begin, we calculate the 1990 and 2010 divorce rates (and numbers of divorces) to determine whether the risk of divorce has increased over the past two divorce rates for various subgroups to show how the likelihood of divorce varies by sociodemographic factors (demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography). Next, we present bivariate comparisons of those who divorced versus remained e sets of factors. Finally, we estimate logistic regression models to examine how demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography are related to divorcing in the past 12 months (coded 1) versus remaining married (coded 0). Individuals who experienced widowhood in the past 12 months are included in the remained married category because they were at risk of divorce in the past 12 months. Excluding them from the analysis produced substantively similar findings (results not shown). These models provide correlational evidence only; divorces took place during the past 12 months, whereas the sociodemographic characteristics are measured at interview. Factors associated with the likelihood of divorce, such as employment or income, may have changed in response to divorce. Thus, interpretation of the findings requires caution. All analyses were conducted using replicate weighting techniques as recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau to generate robust standard errors because the ACS involves a complex sampling design ( U.S. Census Bureau, 2009). Given the large sample size of the ACS, we imposed a stringent threshold for statistical significance: a two-tailed p < .01>

Roentgen esults

As the revealed inside the Contour step one, brand new divorce case price keeps twofold given that 1990, rising from cuatro.9 to ten.step 1 separated individuals for every single step 1,000 married persons. This trend belies the entire pattern throughout the You.S. separation rate during this time period, that has been generally apartment on 19.0 when you look at the 1990 and 17.nine in 2010 (results perhaps not shown). Brand new doubling of one’s rate off separation certainly center-aged and you may the elderly results in a hefty increase in brand new number of individuals old fifty and older whom sense splitting up. Into the 1990, around 206,007 anybody old fifty and you will old had separated, whereas this year in the 643 kissbrides.com go to these guys,152 got separated. To contextualize this development, think that less than 1 in 10 individuals which separated when you look at the 1990 try aged fifty and you can more mature compared to over step 1 in 4 now (impact perhaps not revealed). Also, just in case brand new divorce proceedings rate remains lingering along side second 20 years-an old-fashioned assumption based on the recent development-the number of people old 50 and you will earlier who would feel separation from inside the 2030 do increase of the one-third to help you more 828,380 (authors’ computation considering many years-particular estimated populace versions in 2030 [ You.S. Census Agency, 2004]), highlighting the speeding up growth in this new more mature human population that may are present across the second two decades.